ACTUALIZACIÓN DE ESTRATEGIA
Gran revisión estratégica: inspirada por los mejores traders
March 2026 · Updated May 18, 2026 to match the current engine
Estudiamos a los traders meteorológicos más rentables de Polymarket — gopfan2 (+$335,490 de beneficio), WeatherTraderBot (+$57,180), neobrother (+$20,000) y Hans323 (+$80,899) — y reescribimos completamente nuestro motor de trading basándonos en sus estrategias probadas.
Tres modos de trading respaldados por investigación
● Balanced — Default Mode
Trades within a disciplined 22¢–84¢ price band, avoiding both near-resolved longshots and overpriced favorites. Claude must approve every trade and skips anything under roughly 3% edge or where the forecast models disagree. Risk is controlled mainly through conservative position sizing (Kelly-capped at 5% of bankroll, and no more than 15% of remaining balance on any single trade) plus the full stop-loss and trailing-stop exit suite — not through narrow entry prices. This is the lower-risk default for most users.
● Agresivo — exposición máxima
Uses the same 22¢–84¢ price band as Balanced — the difference is appetite, not price. Position sizing is roughly doubled (Kelly-capped at 10% of bankroll, up to 25% of remaining balance per trade), and Claude is instructed to TRADE rather than SKIP — taking setups with as little as 3% edge at HIGH confidence and recommending larger sizes. Materially higher turnover and higher risk for higher reward; for traders who want maximum market exposure and accept larger swings.
● Alta convicción: resultados casi seguros
BUY NO a 90-99¢ en temperaturas imposibles (4°C+ alejadas del pronóstico), BUY YES a 1-15¢ en long shots asimétricos. Solo confianza VERY_HIGH, 3+ modelos deben coincidir. Posiciones mantenidas hasta la resolución del mercado — solo protección de stop-loss activa. Pequeños retornos porcentuales con ganancias casi garantizadas.
★ RECOMMENDED
● 20TradesStop — Fixed Burst, Hold to Resolution
A capped, walk-away mode. It uses the same disciplined Balanced entry logic (22¢–84¢ band, conservative Kelly sizing, Claude approves every trade) but with two hard rules: (1) it buys at most 20 positions, then automatically stops the bot, y (2) it never sells — every position is held to market resolution, win or lose. There is no profit-taking, trailing stop, or stop-loss; the outcome of each trade is decided by the market settling, not by the exit engine. The X/20 counter is live and slot-based: as markets resolve, their slots free up, and restarting the bot lets it fill those slots up to 20 again. Designed for users who want a bounded, fixed-size basket of weather bets and then a hands-off wait for resolution — total capital at risk is predictable up front, with no churn. Example outcome: with a $500 bankroll, expect a minimum ~$100 profit per completed batch of 20 trades (~20% per batch) — the safest, most hands-off way to compound on WeatherBot.
Tamaño inteligente con tope Kelly
El tamaño de la operación ahora escala dinámicamente con la confianza y la ventaja. VERY_HIGH + ventaja 15%+ = posición máxima. Cada operación limitada al 5% (equilibrado) o 10% (agresivo) del capital. Ninguna operación supera el 15-25% del saldo restante. Esto previene las pérdidas catastróficas que ocurrieron con el enfoque anterior de dimensionamiento plano.
Motor de salida renovado
- Período de gracia de 5 minutos en nuevas posiciones — sin salidas falsas por ruido de precio
- Stop-loss en -25% con stop estricto en -50% y cierre forzado tras 3 intentos fallidos de venta
- Trailing stop mejorado — solo se activa tras un beneficio significativo Y más de 15 minutos
- Los ganadores corren más — objetivo de beneficio elevado al 80% del edge capturado, solo cerca de la resolución
- Una posición por ciudad+fecha — se acabó comprar 4 resultados de Seúl para el mismo día