STRATEGY UPDATE
Malaking pagbabago sa estratehiya — inspirado ng nangungunang mga trader
March 2026 · Updated May 18, 2026 to match the current engine
Pinag-aralan namin ang pinakakumikitang weather traders sa Polymarket — gopfan2 (+$335,490 na kita), WeatherTraderBot (+$57,180), neobrother (+$20,000), at Hans323 (+$80,899) — at kumpletong inisulat muli ang aming trading engine batay sa kanilang napatunayang mga estratehiya.
Tatlong trading mode na pinagbabatayan ng pananaliksik
● Balanced — Default Mode
Trades within a disciplined 22¢–84¢ price band, avoiding both near-resolved longshots and overpriced favorites. Claude must approve every trade and skips anything under roughly 3% edge or where the forecast models disagree. Risk is controlled mainly through conservative position sizing (Kelly-capped at 5% of bankroll, and no more than 15% of remaining balance on any single trade) plus the full stop-loss and trailing-stop exit suite — not through narrow entry prices. This is the lower-risk default for most users.
● Aggressive — maximum exposure
Uses the same 22¢–84¢ price band as Balanced — the difference is appetite, not price. Position sizing is roughly doubled (Kelly-capped at 10% of bankroll, up to 25% of remaining balance per trade), and Claude is instructed to TRADE rather than SKIP — taking setups with as little as 3% edge at HIGH confidence and recommending larger sizes. Materially higher turnover and higher risk for higher reward; for traders who want maximum market exposure and accept larger swings.
● Mataas na Conviction — halos tiyak na mga resulta
BUY NO sa 90-99¢ sa imposibleng temperatura (4°C+ ang layo mula sa forecast), BUY YES sa 1-15¢ sa asymmetric na long shots. VERY_HIGH confidence lamang, 3+ na modelo ang dapat magkasundo. Mga posisyon na hawak hanggang sa market resolution — stop-loss protection lamang ang aktibo. Maliit na percentage returns na may halos-garantisadong panalo.
★ RECOMMENDED
● 20TradesStop — Fixed Burst, Hold to Resolution
A capped, walk-away mode. It uses the same disciplined Balanced entry logic (22¢–84¢ band, conservative Kelly sizing, Claude approves every trade) but with two hard rules: (1) it buys at most 20 positions, then automatically stops the bot, at (2) it never sells — every position is held to market resolution, win or lose. There is no profit-taking, trailing stop, or stop-loss; the outcome of each trade is decided by the market settling, not by the exit engine. The X/20 counter is live and slot-based: as markets resolve, their slots free up, and restarting the bot lets it fill those slots up to 20 again. Designed for users who want a bounded, fixed-size basket of weather bets and then a hands-off wait for resolution — total capital at risk is predictable up front, with no churn. Example outcome: with a $500 bankroll, expect a minimum ~$100 profit per completed batch of 20 trades (~20% per batch) — the safest, most hands-off way to compound on WeatherBot.
Kelly-Capped Smart Sizing
Ang laki ng trade ay nag-iiba nang dinamiko ngayon ayon sa kumpiyansa at edge. VERY_HIGH + 15%+ edge = pinakamalaking posisyon. Bawat trade ay nakatakda sa 5% (balanced) o 10% (aggressive) ng bankroll. Walang isang trade na lalampas sa 15-25% ng natitirang balanse. Pinipigilan nito ang mga catastrophic na pagkalugi na nangyari sa nakaraang flat-sizing approach.
Overhauled na Exit Engine
- 5-minutong palugit sa mga bagong posisyon — walang maling exit dahil sa price noise
- Stop-loss sa -25% may hard stop sa -50% at force-close pagkatapos ng 3 napalyang benta
- Pinabuting trailing stop — umaaktibo lamang pagkatapos ng malaking tubo AT 15+ minuto
- Mas matagal pa-takbo ang mga panalo — ang profit target ay itinaas sa 80% ng edge na nakuha, malapit lamang sa resolusyon
- Isang posisyon kada lungsod+petsa — wala nang pagbili ng 4 na Seoul outcomes sa parehong araw