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How WeatherBot Finds Edge

01
Discover Weather Markets
The scanner queries Polymarket's Gamma API using the weather tag filter, discovering 200-1200+ active markets across global cities. Each market has multiple temperature outcomes with prices set by traders.
02
Parse & Extract Market Data
Each market title gets parsed to extract the city (mapped to lat/lon), date, temperature unit (°C/°F), and outcome options. Handles formats like ranges ("30-31°F"), exact values ("14°C"), and tail outcomes ("15°C or higher").
03
Fetch 4 Independent Forecasts
Four parallel API calls to independent weather models, each returning hourly temperature arrays for the target date.

GFS (NOAA)

US global model. 16-day hourly. Best for North America. Known to run slightly warm in summer.

ECMWF (European)

World's most accurate global model. 10-day, 9km resolution. Gets the highest weight in consensus.

UKMO (UK Met Office)

British model. 7-day seamless. Strong for European patterns. Can lag behind rapid changes.

NWS (NOAA Direct)

US-only hourly forecast + active weather alerts. Best local station data for US cities.

04
Weighted Consensus + Edge Calculation
Models are blended using ECMWF-weighted consensus with outlier detection. The edge engine uses Dynamic σ, Bayesian probability, Normal CDF, and Kelly Criterion to calculate the optimal trade — comparing our forecast probability against the market's implied probability.
05
Claude AI — Senior Meteorologist Analysis
Claude operates as a Senior Meteorologist with 15 years of experience. Each analysis follows a 5-step process: individual model examination with known biases, synoptic pattern assessment, microclimate factors (urban heat island, coastal effects), Weather Underground station awareness, and market pricing comparison. Running on Claude Sonnet 4.6 (latest).
06
Execute & Monitor
Trades execute via Polymarket's CLOB API with FOK orders and GTC fallback. WebSocket streaming monitors all positions in real-time. The exit engine manages stop-losses, trailing stops, and profit targets. Positions and balances sync with Polymarket every 2 minutes.
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