PEMBARUAN STRATEGI
Perombakan strategi besar — terinspirasi oleh trader terbaik
March 2026 · Updated May 18, 2026 to match the current engine
Kami mempelajari trader cuaca paling menguntungkan di Polymarket — gopfan2 (+profit $335.490), WeatherTraderBot (+$57.180), neobrother (+$20.000), dan Hans323 (+$80.899) — dan sepenuhnya menulis ulang mesin trading kami berdasarkan strategi mereka yang terbukti.
Tiga mode trading berbasis riset
● Balanced — Default Mode
Trades within a disciplined 22¢–84¢ price band, avoiding both near-resolved longshots and overpriced favorites. Claude must approve every trade and skips anything under roughly 3% edge or where the forecast models disagree. Risk is controlled mainly through conservative position sizing (Kelly-capped at 5% of bankroll, and no more than 15% of remaining balance on any single trade) plus the full stop-loss and trailing-stop exit suite — not through narrow entry prices. This is the lower-risk default for most users.
● Agresif — eksposur maksimum
Uses the same 22¢–84¢ price band as Balanced — the difference is appetite, not price. Position sizing is roughly doubled (Kelly-capped at 10% of bankroll, up to 25% of remaining balance per trade), and Claude is instructed to TRADE rather than SKIP — taking setups with as little as 3% edge at HIGH confidence and recommending larger sizes. Materially higher turnover and higher risk for higher reward; for traders who want maximum market exposure and accept larger swings.
● Keyakinan tinggi — hasil hampir pasti
BUY NO di 90-99¢ pada suhu yang tidak mungkin (4°C+ dari prakiraan), BUY YES di 1-15¢ pada long shot asimetris. Hanya kepercayaan VERY_HIGH, 3+ model harus setuju. Posisi dipegang hingga resolusi pasar — hanya perlindungan stop-loss yang aktif. Pengembalian persentase kecil dengan kemenangan hampir terjamin.
★ RECOMMENDED
● 20TradesStop — Fixed Burst, Hold to Resolution
A capped, walk-away mode. It uses the same disciplined Balanced entry logic (22¢–84¢ band, conservative Kelly sizing, Claude approves every trade) but with two hard rules: (1) it buys at most 20 positions, then automatically stops the bot, dan (2) it never sells — every position is held to market resolution, win or lose. There is no profit-taking, trailing stop, or stop-loss; the outcome of each trade is decided by the market settling, not by the exit engine. The X/20 counter is live and slot-based: as markets resolve, their slots free up, and restarting the bot lets it fill those slots up to 20 again. Designed for users who want a bounded, fixed-size basket of weather bets and then a hands-off wait for resolution — total capital at risk is predictable up front, with no churn. Example outcome: with a $500 bankroll, expect a minimum ~$100 profit per completed batch of 20 trades (~20% per batch) — the safest, most hands-off way to compound on WeatherBot.
Smart sizing dengan batas Kelly
Ukuran trade kini berskala dinamis dengan kepercayaan dan edge. VERY_HIGH + edge 15%+ = posisi maksimum. Setiap trade dibatasi 5% (balanced) atau 10% (aggressive) dari modal. Tidak ada satu trade yang melebihi 15-25% dari saldo tersisa. Ini mencegah kerugian bencana yang terjadi dengan pendekatan flat-sizing sebelumnya.
Mesin exit yang dirombak
- Masa tenggang 5 menit pada posisi baru — tidak ada exit palsu akibat noise harga
- Stop-loss di -25% dengan stop keras di -50% dan penutupan paksa setelah 3 kali gagal jual
- Trailing stop ditingkatkan — hanya aktif setelah laba signifikan DAN lebih dari 15 menit
- Trade pemenang berjalan lebih lama — target laba dinaikkan menjadi 80% edge yang ditangkap, hanya menjelang resolusi
- Satu posisi per kota+tanggal — tidak lagi membeli 4 hasil Seoul untuk hari yang sama