首頁 排行榜 控制台

重大策略改造 — 靈感來自頂級交易者

我們研究了 Polymarket 上最賺錢的天氣交易者 — gopfan2(+$335,490 獲利)、WeatherTraderBot(+$57,180)、neobrother(+$20,000) 和 Hans323(+$80,899) — 並基於他們經過驗證的策略完全重寫了我們的交易引擎。

三種以研究為支撐的交易模式

● Balanced — Default Mode
Trades within a disciplined 22¢–84¢ price band, avoiding both near-resolved longshots and overpriced favorites. Claude must approve every trade and skips anything under roughly 3% edge or where the forecast models disagree. Risk is controlled mainly through conservative position sizing (Kelly-capped at 5% of bankroll, and no more than 15% of remaining balance on any single trade) plus the full stop-loss and trailing-stop exit suite — not through narrow entry prices. This is the lower-risk default for most users.
● 積極 — 最大敞口
Uses the same 22¢–84¢ price band as Balanced — the difference is appetite, not price. Position sizing is roughly doubled (Kelly-capped at 10% of bankroll, up to 25% of remaining balance per trade), and Claude is instructed to TRADE rather than SKIP — taking setups with as little as 3% edge at HIGH confidence and recommending larger sizes. Materially higher turnover and higher risk for higher reward; for traders who want maximum market exposure and accept larger swings.
● 高確信 — 接近確定的結果
在不可能的溫度(偏離預測4°C+)上以90-99¢ BUY NO,在非對稱長線投注上以1-15¢ BUY YES。僅VERY_HIGH信心等級,3+模型必須一致。持倉直到市場結算 — 僅啟用止損保護。小幅百分比回報,勝率近乎保證。
★ RECOMMENDED
● 20TradesStop — Fixed Burst, Hold to Resolution
A capped, walk-away mode. It uses the same disciplined Balanced entry logic (22¢–84¢ band, conservative Kelly sizing, Claude approves every trade) but with two hard rules: (1) it buys at most 20 positions, then automatically stops the bot,以及 (2) it never sells — every position is held to market resolution, win or lose. There is no profit-taking, trailing stop, or stop-loss; the outcome of each trade is decided by the market settling, not by the exit engine. The X/20 counter is live and slot-based: as markets resolve, their slots free up, and restarting the bot lets it fill those slots up to 20 again. Designed for users who want a bounded, fixed-size basket of weather bets and then a hands-off wait for resolution — total capital at risk is predictable up front, with no churn. Example outcome: with a $500 bankroll, expect a minimum ~$100 profit per completed batch of 20 trades (~20% per batch) — the safest, most hands-off way to compound on WeatherBot.

受 Kelly 上限約束的智能倉位

交易規模現在根據信心度和優勢動態縮放。VERY_HIGH + 15%+ 優勢 = 最大部位。每筆交易上限為資金的 5%(平衡)或 10%(激進)。單筆交易不超過剩餘餘額的 15-25%。這避免了以前固定部位方法所發生的災難性損失。

全面改造的退出引擎

  • 5 分鐘寬限期 對新倉位 — 不會因價格雜訊而誤退出
  • 止損 -25% 硬性止損 -50%,賣出失敗 3 次後強制平倉
  • 改進的移動止損 — 僅在顯著盈利且超過 15 分鐘後才會觸發
  • 獲利交易持有更久 — 利潤目標提高到捕獲 edge 的 80%,僅在臨近結算時
  • 每個城市+日期一個倉位 — 不再為同一天買進 4 個首爾結果
Read next

We Are Thrilled to Announce Two Brand-New Games: Storm Spin and Storm Bet

Read article →

Hong Kong Trades Are Now More Accurate Than Ever: We Plugged the Engine Straight Into the Source That Settles the Market

Read article →

WeatherBot by the Numbers: 9,592 Traders, $2.87M in Member Profit, and Exactly What It Costs to Run

Read article →
← All articles