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重大策略改造 — 灵感来自顶级交易者

我们研究了 Polymarket 上最赚钱的天气交易者 — gopfan2(+$335,490 利润)、WeatherTraderBot(+$57,180)、neobrother(+$20,000) 和 Hans323(+$80,899) — 并基于他们经过验证的策略完全重写了我们的交易引擎。

三种以研究为支撑的交易模式

● Balanced — Default Mode
Trades within a disciplined 22¢–84¢ price band, avoiding both near-resolved longshots and overpriced favorites. Claude must approve every trade and skips anything under roughly 3% edge or where the forecast models disagree. Risk is controlled mainly through conservative position sizing (Kelly-capped at 5% of bankroll, and no more than 15% of remaining balance on any single trade) plus the full stop-loss and trailing-stop exit suite — not through narrow entry prices. This is the lower-risk default for most users.
● 激进 — 最大敞口
Uses the same 22¢–84¢ price band as Balanced — the difference is appetite, not price. Position sizing is roughly doubled (Kelly-capped at 10% of bankroll, up to 25% of remaining balance per trade), and Claude is instructed to TRADE rather than SKIP — taking setups with as little as 3% edge at HIGH confidence and recommending larger sizes. Materially higher turnover and higher risk for higher reward; for traders who want maximum market exposure and accept larger swings.
● 高确信 — 接近确定的结果
在不可能的温度(偏离预测4°C+)上以90-99¢ BUY NO,在非对称长线投注上以1-15¢ BUY YES。仅VERY_HIGH信心等级,3+模型必须一致。持仓直到市场结算 — 仅启用止损保护。小幅百分比回报,胜率近乎保证。
★ RECOMMENDED
● 20TradesStop — Fixed Burst, Hold to Resolution
A capped, walk-away mode. It uses the same disciplined Balanced entry logic (22¢–84¢ band, conservative Kelly sizing, Claude approves every trade) but with two hard rules: (1) it buys at most 20 positions, then automatically stops the bot,以及 (2) it never sells — every position is held to market resolution, win or lose. There is no profit-taking, trailing stop, or stop-loss; the outcome of each trade is decided by the market settling, not by the exit engine. The X/20 counter is live and slot-based: as markets resolve, their slots free up, and restarting the bot lets it fill those slots up to 20 again. Designed for users who want a bounded, fixed-size basket of weather bets and then a hands-off wait for resolution — total capital at risk is predictable up front, with no churn. Example outcome: with a $500 bankroll, expect a minimum ~$100 profit per completed batch of 20 trades (~20% per batch) — the safest, most hands-off way to compound on WeatherBot.

受 Kelly 上限约束的智能仓位

交易规模现在根据置信度和优势动态缩放。VERY_HIGH + 15%+ 优势 = 最大仓位。每笔交易上限为资金的 5%(平衡)或 10%(激进)。单笔交易不超过剩余余额的 15-25%。这避免了以前固定仓位方法所发生的灾难性损失。

全面改造的退出引擎

  • 5 分钟宽限期 对新仓位 — 不会因价格噪声而误退出
  • 止损 -25% 硬性止损 -50%,卖出失败 3 次后强制平仓
  • 改进的移动止损 — 仅在显著盈利且超过 15 分钟后才会触发
  • 盈利交易持有更久 — 利润目标提高到捕获 edge 的 80%,仅在临近结算时
  • 每个城市+日期一个仓位 — 不再为同一天买入 4 个首尔结果
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